Nasrallah’s death demonstrates Hezbollah’s miscalculation in its fight with Israel

Weeks after the Palestinian terror group Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel that started the war in Gaza last October, Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollahhe laid out his militia’s approach to war.

In a video conference from a secret location, he said Hezbollah was trying to find a balance between launching cross-border attacks on Israel in support of Hamas and avoiding all-out war.

“Some in Lebanon say we are taking a risk,” he said. “But this risk is part of a beneficial and correct calculation.”

That calculation has backfired dramatically in the past two weeks as Israel launched a series of escalating attacks against the group. The campaign has already incapacitated thousands of Hezbollah rank-and-file members by destroying their electronic equipment and killed many top Hezbollah leaders in airstrikes.

On Friday, the Israeli military targeted Nasrallah himselfdropped powerful bombs on what was said to be the group’s headquarters near Beirut. His death was confirmed by Israel and Hezbollah this Saturday.

“Hezbollah believed that the deterrence game with Israel was essentially balanced”said Michael Young, editor-in-chief of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. “And the Israelis showed that he was not.

Nasrallah led Hezbollah for more than three decades, and his death deprived the group of a veteran leader who enjoyed an almost mythical status among the group’s Shiite Muslim base.

In deciding to bring Hezbollah into a new battle with Israel, Nasrallah appears to have assumed that the fighting could be suppressed and that Israeli exhaustion from the war in Gaza and fear of the damage Hezbollah’s rockets and commandos could cause in Israel. not to react too forcefully.

This strategy largely worked for many months, as the Israeli military and Hezbollah bombed and shelled along the Lebanon-Israeli border, but largely avoided major attacks.

But in recent weeks, Israeli leaders have faced the internal pressure to find a solution for the tens of thousands of Israelis who fled the north of the country to return home, They quickly ramped up their attacks. The sustained effort has created confusion within Hezbollah and limited its ability to respond.

Israel had two advantages against Hezbollah. First, their intelligence penetrated deep into the group, allowing them to track down and kill large numbers of middle and high commanders.

“They were able to infiltrate Hezbollah very deeply, so. apparently they knew everything where the leaders were and when and where they were meeting,” Young said.

Even after Israel’s assassinations made it clear that it was targeting the group’s leaders, Hezbollah does not appear to have adjusted its security protocols to prevent new targets. Last week, Israel killed Ibrahim Aqeel, who led an elite Hezbollah commando, while meeting with other military commanders. Nasrallah appears to have been targeted at Hezbollah headquarters during another meeting with leaders of other groups.

This was Israel’s second advantage Nasrallah’s actions have shown that he is reluctant to respond to Israeli attacks in ways that are likely to expand the war.

After Israel killed Hezbollah’s military operations commander in an airstrike near Beirut in July, Hezbollah has not seen a major response.

The group has long boasted powerful rockets that could hit cities deep inside Israel, and Israeli leaders have worried that Hezbollah could attack sensitive infrastructure with precision-guided missiles or send commandos to ambush Israeli communities. But these capabilities, unless disabled by Israeli attacks, have remained largely unused.

“At all levels of escalation, Hezbollah could not keep up with the Israelis,” Young said.

So Israel quickly escalated, stepping up targeted assassinations of Hezbollah leaders and intensive bombing of Hezbollah strongholds in southern and eastern Lebanon, attacks that have killed more than 700 people, many of them civilians, in the past week. Israeli officials have said they are trying to prevent a ground invasion of Lebanon by significantly degrading Hezbollah’s capabilities and eliminating its leadership.

When Israel goes after Nasrallah, it can hope that the removal of the group’s revered leader will serve as a blow of sorts.

© The New York Times 2024.